
Brunei – Economic Outlook 2022
According to the detailed research of our analytic team, the anticipated recovery of the Brunei economy in 2021 has been derailed by the materialization of key downside risks—pandemic resurgence, unanticipated domestic oil and gas production disruptions, and delays in the commencement of FDI projects. Domestic economic activity has been severely impacted by the re-imposition of containment measures. The Brunei economy shrank by 2.2 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2021, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Upstream and downstream oil and gas production have been weaker than expected, while some service activities have been hampered by mobility restrictions. Retail sales declined sharply in Q3 2021, reflecting limited consumer spending due to stay-at-home orders and voluntary social distancing to avoid contracting the virus. The contractions across almost all retail activities highlight the severity of the second COVID-19 wave, contrasting the resilience during the first wave in 2020. The recovery in the hotel sub-sector has been halted by the second COVID-19 wave. Hotel occupancy rates had