Investors are becoming too optimistic about the world economy
American inflation, Europe’s energy crisis, and China’s zero-covid policy are still enormous problems A surge of optimism is running through financial markets. For most of the year, America’s high inflation has proved troublingly persistent, Europe’s energy crisis has threatened covid-19 lockdowns and a property bust has plagued a deep recession and China’s economy. Investors are now cheering developments on all three fronts. America’s annual inflation fell from 8.2% to 7.7% in October. Europe’s natural-gas prices are down by two-thirds from their peak in August. China has loosened some restrictions associated with its “zero-covid” policy and on November 11th unveiled measures to ease the financial pressure on embattled property developers. This flurry of news has sent global stocks up by 13% since mid-October, as traders priced in fewer interest-rate rises by central banks and caused the dollar to fall. Alas, investors are getting ahead of themselves. America’s inflation is coming down because pandemic-related disruptions to supply chains are dissipating. A year ago dozens of ships were anchored outside Los Angeles waiting to be unloaded, and semiconductors