Category: ARTICLE

The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy

The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision will be announced on Wednesday. Markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its July meeting before eventually cutting in September as the case for easing policy mounts. Inflation has shown signs of slowing in recent months. In June, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.6% over the prior year, its lowest annual increase in more than three years. Separate data for the month showed a significant decrease in another inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Meanwhile, the labor market has shown signs of cooling. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is back at pre-pandemic levels, and last month, the unemployment rate hit its highest level since November 2021. “While food and energy prices have been well-behaved and core goods have been a steady source of disinflation, gains in shelter and auto insurance have remained elevated, prolonging inflation’s journey back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, with real-time

Elon Musk going all-in on Donald Trump ?

Elon Musk and Donald Trump wouldn’t seem to be natural allies. One has made cutting greenhouse emissions a major business selling point. The other questions the need to cut emissions at all, denouncing most forms of clean energy as at best unnecessary and at worst destructive. One wants to move away from fossil fuels and convert all car sales worldwide to electric vehicles. The other believes EVs will be an economic disaster for America and that the nation should produce and burn more oil. Musk is now publicly endorsing Trump’s presidential reelection bid. And the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reports that Musk is now planning on supporting Trump’s presidential campaign by committing $45 million a month to a new super PAC backing the former president. The donations, if they come to pass, are a significant development in not only the presidential campaign, but also the relationship between the two men, who both have fervent support among millions of fans who stand ready to believe most anything they say. Musk didn’t comment directly on the Journal

Japan is worried about another ‘transactional’ Trump presidency

There is a lot of uncertainty in Japan about the next few years as a “transactional” Donald Trump’s possible return to the Oval Office has raised business and regional security-related concerns, U.S. president Joe Biden’s performance during the first presidential debate has “caused a bit of a shockwave across Tokyo Biden’s performance has raised alarm bells in his own party with several colleagues urging him to drop out of the race. Former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has refused to say she supports Biden as the Democratic nominee and major donors are refusing to finance the party until he steps down. Pesek said that the Japanese government had been “pretty certain that Biden had this well in hand.” However, following the recent turmoil in Biden’s party, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is now reappraising the odds of a “Trump 2.0 presidency.” A Trump presidency is concerning to Tokyo because Japan suffered from “collateral damage” during his first term “In many ways, a lot of his trade war policies were aimed at China, but Japan’s economy suffered greatly during that

What will a Trump victory mean for bonds?

(Bloomberg) — Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market. After last week’s debate hurt President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, Wall Street strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields. Trump’s rise in the polls since Last week’s debate means investors have to contemplate economic policies that could lead to more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, along with a Republican sweep that leads to fiscal expansion and pressures longer-term bond yields higher, Morgan Stanley said. McIntyre said he “is worried that the bond vigilantes are coming out early in response to the debate falling out.” The odds of a Republican sweep in November will increase from a combination of “Biden’s performance, weaker data, higher oil prices.   The uptick in Treasury yields was led by the longest maturities, with 30-year bond yields up as much as nine basis points to a session high of 4.65%, the

Nvidia to become surpasses Apple

Nvidia to become the second-most-valuable company in the world,surpassing Apple. The ongoing artificial-intelligence boom has catapulted (Nvidia’s market valuation to the $3 trillion) Clubs as mega-cap tech companies such as Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft rush to buy the company’s supply-constrained AI-enabling GPU chips. Nvidia’s valuation was just above $950 billion a year ago and was about $400 billion in November 2022 When OpenAI first released ChatGPT to the public.Apple stock,while trading near record highs,has stagnated over the past year as investors wait to see what the iPhone maker’s AI strategy is.Apple stock is up 2% year to date,compared with Nvidia’s year-to-date gain of 146%.Apple held a market valuation of $3.00 trillion or about $15 billion below Nvidia’s current valuation.With Apple surpassed,Nvidia is behind only Microsoft which is the world’s most valuable With the AI boom powering much of the stock market higher,it’s no surprise that the company most responsible for powering the boom has turned into one of the world’s most valuable companies. Fund tech analyst, said she believed the gains could continue for Nvidia, arguing in an interview with

Fed officials aren’t easing Wall Street’s nerves.

Some Fed officials have sounded a little more optimistic about inflation recently, (after the Consumer Price Index for April finally provided some welcome news.) Some Fed officials have sounded a little more optimistic about inflation recently, after the Consumer Price Index for April finally provided some welcome news. Joshua Some officials at the Federal Reserve said they’re no longer worried about inflation reaccelerating, after data showed that progress stalled in the first quarter. Optimism spurred by the latest inflation data pushed all three major stock indexes to new record highs. But now Wall Street, eager for rate cuts, is on edge again. That’s because minutes from the central bank’s The latest policy meeting was released showed that “various” officials said they would be willing to raise interest rates if necessary and that there were doubts as to whether financial conditions are restrictive enough to keep inflation from resurging. Moreover, the Fed minutes seemed to outweigh comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a key messenger of monetary policy moves, who told CNBC in an interview Tuesday that the Fed could cut

The Current State of the Japanese Yen

According to Bank of America Securities’ recent survey, there’s a likelihood of further weakness in the Japanese yen. This sentiment contrasts with the consistently bullish yen bias observed since mid-2022. Despite Japanese authorities spending nearly $60 billion to bolster the yen, it has returned to trading at ¥155.83 against the dollar. Investors, reacting to USDJPY breaching new highs in April, have shifted to the largest JPY short position since 2022, displaying skepticism about Japan’s FX intervention effectiveness. Most fund managers expect USDJPY to retest ¥160, indicating a lack of anticipation for a reversal to ¥150. However, the sudden shift in sentiment towards JPY suggests caution for short positions in the near term, according to the bank. Published on 17/05/2024 By Michael S.

India’s economy is the fastest growing economy.

In six weeks’ time Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term as India’s prime minister, cementing his status as its most important leader since Nehru. The electoral success of this tea-seller’s son reflects his political skill, the potency of his Hindu-nationalist ideology and his erosion of democratic institutions. But it also reflects a sense among ordinary voters and elites that he is bringing India prosperity and power.   Mr Modi’s India is an experiment in how to get richer amid deglobalisation and under strongman leadership. Whether it can grow fast and avoid unrest over the next 10-20 years will shape the fate of 1.4bn people and the world economy. As our special report explains, Mr Modi’s formula is working—up to a point. But there are questions over whether India’s success can last and whether it depends on him remaining in power.   India, the world’s fastest-growing big country, is expanding at an annual rate of 6-7%. New data show private-sector confidence at its highest since 2010. Already the fifth-largest economy, it may rank third by 2027, after America and China. India’s clout

Israel Response to Iran has raised, fears that conflict in the Middle East will escalate.

The recent confrontation between Israel and Iran has had a significant impact on global financial markets and investments. Stock markets in Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei dropped by more than 3%. Hong Kong and Sydney saw declines of over 1%, while Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington, and Jakarta also entered negative territory. The yen strengthened against the dollar, gold prices rose by over 1%, and WTI and Brent oil prices surged by more than 3% due to concerns over Middle Eastern oil supplies. Investors and international financial markets need to closely monitor and be cautious about the developments in this region.

Gold surged to an all-time high

Gold surged to an all-time high as the second quarter began, continuing its upward trajectory fueled by the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate cuts and escalating geopolitical conflicts. The price of bullion soared to a peak of US$2,260 per ounce on Monday morning, marking a 1.3% increase from Thursday’s closing price, following a series of record highs in recent trading sessions.