Category: ARTICLE

The Completed China-Laos Railway: Bringing Opportunities for ASEAN and the Asia Pacific

          In early December 2021, Laos inaugurated the Boten-Vientiane railway, a 414-kilometer (km) electrified high-speed railway that runs between the capital Vientiane and the town of Boten through the Laos-China border of which the railway is built on a single track with passing loops and is electrified to China’s first Class trunk railway standards, suitable for 160 km/h passenger and 120 km/h freight trains, making Laos the first country to connect to the Chinese railway network using Chinese technology. An expectation of this project is, A railway link through Laos would greatly reduce cargo transit times and transportation costs between Laos and China. However, The cost of the railway has contributed to a $480 million increase in Lao debt to the Chinese Export-Import Bank. This has led to concern that Laos could fall into default on its debts.           This US$6 billion project (equivalent to one-third of Laos’ GDP) is backed by China as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is a sign of the deepening ties between the

ECB hikes interest rate for the first time in 11 years

          On Thursday, 21st July 2022, the European Central Bank announced to raise the interest rate by 0.50%. This is the first time since 2011 which has raised interest rates, and from the announcement, it would begin to be effective on 27th July 2022. The cause of the ECB to raise its interest rates is because annual inflation in the European Union rose to 9.6% in June, reaching 8.6% for 19 countries that use the euro, and another factor is the surging of energy prices.           After the ECB announced raising interest rates, ECB denied providing a definitive direction of the rate raises in the future. Christine Lagarde, ECB president said “From now on we will make our monetary policy decisions on a data-dependent basis, We will operate month-by-month and step-by-step. What happens in September is going to depend on what data we have for September.”           However, We have to keep an eye on the interest rates in Europe that would affect the world economy together with

Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP), June 2022: Financial Deepening for Stronger Growth and Sustainable Recovery

          The Indonesian economy accelerated at 3.7 percent at the end of 2021 as the country stepped off from the COVID Delta wave. The momentum continued in early 2022 at 5 percent (YoY), shifting anchors through towards more private consumption and investment. However, due to the challenging global environment, the country is starting to feel the pressures of rising prices and tightening external finance.           Higher energy prices raise food prices through agricultural input costs. Cooking oil and other food prices have also shot up due to global supply shortages and rising demand. Most firms have resumed operations but with below capacity. Large firms, export-oriented firms, and businesses in high value-added services have recovered more quickly than MSMEs.           The budget deficit narrowed in 2021 (from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2020 to 4.6 percent in 2021) thanks to a recovery in revenue and slowing expenditure. Government debt levels rose slightly from 38.6 percent of GDP to 40.7 percent in 2020-2021. The 2022 budget saw a reduction in

Dropped $30B of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Thailand

          On 9th July 2022, the reporter announced that the situation of bearish Thai Baht was hit to 36 THB per 1 USD at this time. It made the anxiety that will be affected the capital would be flown out, while the Bank of Thailand asserted that they won’t intervene in the Baht, and let it be as the market mechanism, according to the bearish Thai Baht is a middle-level when compared to the near regions, and they will take a part when Thai Baht fluctuation. Mr. Poon Panichpiboon said the Bank of Thailand intervenes in the Baht when it fluctuated by using foreign exchange reserves, in the beginning of 2022, the Bank of Thailand has foreign exchange reserves of $279 Billion, but at this time (report updated on 24th June 2022) foreign exchange reserves remain as $251Billion or dropped as $28 Billion, This cause has reflected that the Bank of Thailand seeks to find any path for Thai Baht, not to have fluctuated too fast.           However, the Thai Baht still

Stagflation

What is Stagflation?           Stagflation, also known as the economic recession, is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e., inflation). Generally, stagflation occurs when the money supply is expanding while supply is being restricted.           Stagflation can be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP). Such an unfavorable combination is feared and can be a dilemma for governments since most actions designed to lower inflation may raise unemployment levels. Policies designed to decrease unemployment may worsen inflation. While debating among economists, Elliot Eisenberg, chief economist at GraphsandLaughs, an economic consulting firm, mentioned the short conclusion sentence, which was, “The general notion of stagflation is high inflation and high unemployment.” The Causes of Stagflation           Stagflation is costly and challenging to eliminate, both in social and fiscal terms. There is no consensus among economists on the causes of stagflation. Each economics school offers different points

The impact of increased interest rates from the FED on Thailand

          Since the US has faced an inflation rate hit 8.6% which is the highest in 40 years, the FED has consideration to increases the interest rate, and the latest update on the interest rate is rose to 0.75% after they had seen the inflation report of May.           Accordingly, How will this impact Thailand? The signal to increase the interest rate is the same as the FOMC meeting recently. The governor of the Bank of Thailand, Dr. Sethaput Suthiwatanaraput said about monetary policy “The interest rate in Thailand is the lowest in the region, but inflation in Thailand is the top rank in the region, so the monetary policy that they use considerately.” This quote was analyzed that the interest rate in Thailand will increase exactly, at present the interest rate is 0.5% but the inflation rate hit 7.1% which is the highest 13 years ago. On 8 June 2022, during the meeting The Monetary Policy Committee has a 4:3 solution to keep the interest rate at 0.5%, the votes were

Brunei – Economic Outlook 2022

         According to the detailed research of our analytic team, the anticipated recovery of the Brunei economy in 2021 has been derailed by the materialization of key downside risks—pandemic resurgence, unanticipated domestic oil and gas production disruptions, and delays in the commencement of FDI projects.           Domestic economic activity has been severely impacted by the re-imposition of containment measures. The Brunei economy shrank by 2.2 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2021, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Upstream and downstream oil and gas production have been weaker than expected, while some service activities have been hampered by mobility restrictions. Retail sales declined sharply in Q3 2021, reflecting limited consumer spending due to stay-at-home orders and voluntary social distancing to avoid contracting the virus. The contractions across almost all retail activities highlight the severity of the second COVID-19 wave, contrasting the resilience during the first wave in 2020.           The recovery in the hotel sub-sector has been halted by the second COVID-19 wave. Hotel occupancy rates had

The causes of Laos Inflation in 2022

          Nowadays, many situations are being fluctuated in each microeconomics around the world. Not only the increased cost of living but also the other causes that Laos has faced in this severe situation which lead to an economic crisis. It was begun with Laos’ public debt, fuel shortage, and depreciation of the Kip currency has down 36% against the dollar over the last year, 2021, together with inflation. Our analyst team mentioned the Laos inflation statistic compared in the same period in April to March from 5 years (2017), to last year (2021), and this year (2022)           Firstly, The inflation rate, In 2017, 5 years ago, The Bank of the Lao P.D.R reported an inflation rate of 1.52% in April, and the inflation rate decreased to 1.07% in May with the 6.83% of 2017 GDP, According to the report from CEIC Data. In the same period month last year in April 2021, the inflation rate was 3.23% and in May 2021 the inflation rate was 3.55%, this is the highest point

Financial Hub of Singapore

          Singapore has in many ways been at the top of the world whether it is in entertainment, governance, and tourism. But one of the most remarkable things about Singapore is that it is commonly known as a financial hub not only within the region but across the world as well. World’s top financial center           What makes this so remarkable is the fact that Singapore has become the top three financial hubs in the world in a matter of fifty years. This means that Singapore is just behind London and New York in terms of this ranking. It must be noted that in recent years, Singapore has overtaken the likes of Hong Kong as the top financial hub of Asia. Why is Singapore a financial hub?           What makes Singapore a financial hub and vibrant market is it is considered one of the most competitive markets globally. This is where Singapore is considered one of the most attractive markets to go among investors and financiers around the

Officially launched crypto mining operation in LAOS

    On August 28, 2021, the bank of Laos was cautious about the usage of unregulated cryptocurrencies, as in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, which are not physical currency. The notice was issued that citizens of Laos are prohibited by law from purchasing or selling cryptocurrencies, and the Laos people must regard the risks of cryptocurrencies before investing in or purchasing them. However, some Lao businesses continue to choose cryptocurrencies as payment for products and services.     After that, on September 8, 2021, the government of Laos authorized 6 companies to be able to trade and mine cryptocurrencies viz Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The companies had been authorized to can mining and trading in Laos such as Wap Data Technology Laos Phongsubthavy Road & Bridge Construction Co. Sisaket Construction Company Limited Boupha Road-Bridge Design Survey Co., Ltd. The Joint Development Bank Phousy Group     The Office of the Prime Minister has issued notification No. 1158/SAN on September 9, 2021, as regards the 6 companies signing the agreement with a company that provides maximum anti-tariff conditions to be used