Debt Ceiling Crisis: Navigating the Brink of Default Debt limit optimism and decent data are nibbling away at the pricing of Fed rate cuts and dollar shorts are feeling the squeeze. It’s “just a correction” but it’s painful all the same. Joe Biden, the US President, called the bipartisan offer from House Speaker Joseph McCarthy “unacceptable.” The risk that the US government fails to make its debt payments by June 1 grows The first real US government bond payment default risk falls on June 6th. Without a debt ceiling resolution, the US government could place the global financial system in ‘shock’ as soon as June 6th. If not before. Published on 07/06/2023 By Michael S.

President Joe Biden and Republican leaders have expressed cautious optimism that a deal to raise the US debt ceiling is within reach, following emergency talks at the White House. Without a deal, the US could enter a calamitous default on its $31.4tr (£25tr) debt as soon as 1 June. A failure by the US government to meet its debt obligations could trigger global financial chaos. The Democratic president said Tuesday’s hour-long Oval Office meeting was “good, productive”, sounding upbeat about the prospects of an agreement. Mr. McCarthy said afterward he believed a deal was possible by the end of this week. In exchange for support for raising the debt ceiling, Republican leaders are demanding budget cuts. They also want tougher work requirements for government aid recipients. Published on 24/05/2023 By Michael S.

Renewed Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets lifted the Pound (GBP) yesterday following a hotter-than-expected consumer price index. UK inflation remained in double digits at 10.1%, rather than easing to 9.8%, prompting expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates again next month. Movement could be more subdued today amid a lack of economic data. Ongoing BoE bets could help Sterling hold strong. Published on 26/04/2023 By Michael S.

Most of the Asian currencies retreated on Friday, coming under pressure from uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy following mixed economic readings this week. The Chinese yuan traded at two-month lows after the worse-than-expected trade and inflation data released this week pointed to a slowing economic rebound in Asia’s largest economy. Weakness in the Chinese economy dulled sentiment towards broader Asian markets. The South Korean won fell 0.2%, while the Malaysian ringgit shed 0.3%, even as data showed that Malaysia’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter. The Australian dollar shed 0.1% but remained relatively underpinned by expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank. The Japanese yen fell 0.1% and was set for mild weekly gains as fears of a U.S. banking crisis and uncertainty over the debt ceiling made for some safe-haven demand. Published on  17 May 2023 By Michael S.

RBA’s governor says inflation has passed peak but at 7% is ‘still too high Australia’s central bank on Tuesday stunned markets by raising its cash rate 25 basis points (0.25%) when traders had looked for an extended pause, saying inflation was way too high and warned that even further tightening may be needed to bring it to heel. Wrapping up its May policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates to 3.85% and said “some further tightening” may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a “reasonable timeframe”. The Australian dollar shot up by 1% to $0.6695, while three-year futures dived 23 ticks to 96.780, the sharpest daily drop since mid-2012. Inflation is now expected to slow to 4.5% this year, compared with the previous forecast of 4.75%. Also on Tuesday, the RBA lowered the economic growth forecast for this year to 1.25%, compared with 1.5% previously, while projecting the unemployment rate to increase to around 4.5% in mid-2025. Published on 10 May 2023 by Michael S.

Parliament endorsed the first EU rules to trace crypto-asset transfers and prevent money laundering, as well as common rules on supervision and customer protection. On Thursday, MEPs approved with 529 votes in favor to 29 against and 14 abstentions, the first piece of EU legislation for tracing transfers of crypto-assets like bitcoins and electronic money tokens. The text –which was provisionally agreed by Parliament and Council negotiators in June 2022- aims to ensure that crypto transfers, as is the case with any other financial operation, can always be traced and suspicious transactions blocked. The so-called “travel rule”, already used in traditional finance, will in the future cover transfers of crypto assets. Information on the source of the asset and its beneficiary will have to “travel” with the transaction and be stored on both sides of the transfer. The law would also cover transactions above €1000 from so-called self-hosted wallets (a crypto-asset wallet address of a private user) when they interact with hosted wallets managed by crypto-assets service providers. The rules do not apply to person-to-person transfers conducted without a provider or among providers acting

Renewed Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets lifted the Pound (GBP) yesterday following a hotter-than-expected consumer price index. UK inflation remained in double digits at 10.1%, rather than easing to 9.8%, prompting expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates again next month. Movement could be more subdued today amid a lack of economic data. Ongoing BoE bets could help Sterling hold strong. Published on 26/04/2023 By Michael S.

          Since the inflation has eased yet remains rising, additionally, Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t impacted much but causing the global uncertainty mentioned by FED.  In its Feb. 1 policy decision, the Fed raised the target range for benchmark interest rates by another 0.25%, setting the range at 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since 2007.         With unanimous voting in favor of the rate increase, FED policymakers mentioned in a policy statement that “ongoing increases” in interest rates will likely be appropriate to obtain a monetary policy stance that is “sufficiently restrictive” — in effect countering the recent easing in financial conditions that has resulted from higher stock prices and a moderation in rates for Treasuries and other bonds.         Meanwhile, Thailand’s finance minister, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, mentioned that Thailand’s interest rate has been reasonably adjusted, and raising too much will sharply drag down the economy which is getting better. Even the private sector said the baht was too strong, “but it’s not very strong,” and “The baht is strengthening on the fundamentals

          Since Russia was threatened to be boycotted by the western, Russia plans to cut its oil production output by 500,000 barrels a day in March. This movement caused sharp increasing oil prices.         Regarding the Russian announcement, Oil Market has been turmoiled causing disruption to the Russian demand. It further tightens supply constraints from OPEC+, which Saudi Arabia had already led into a 2 million barrel-a-day production cut last year in an effort to buoy prices. Delegates from the group signaled they won’t take any action to fill in the gap created by Russia.          Russia’s reduction is equivalent to about 5% of its January output. The Kremlin has repeatedly hinted at such a move since the European Union and the Group of Seven industrialized countries began discussing capping the price of Russian crude and refined product exports amid the war in Ukraine.          “Russia believes that the mechanism of price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products is an intervention in market relations and an

          On 1 February 2023, A 2-year mark the Myanmar military initiated a deadly coup, ripping the country out of democratic transition. Mobile payments have become more common use in Myanmar after a severe shortage of cash pushed consumers to explore digital alternatives.           Since last year, the regime has frozen the bank accounts and mobile money wallets of people who give financial support to the anti-coup resistance. Subsequently, The military junta maintains command of Myanmar’s banking system to keep a complete record. It has imposed increasingly authoritarian rules on either transferring or receiving mobile payments to keep personal information through its mobile wallet apps.           The military government is supportive of this shift. At a January meeting with electronic payment companies, the Myanmar central bank called for reducing the use of cash and promoting the use of QR codes and payment apps. Currently, Some are now avoiding mobile payments altogether, fearing attention from the authorities. Published 10/02/2023 By Ashley Jones