
Europe’s energy crisis: recession now inevitable
We assume that Russian gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will fluctuate between zero and 20% capacity in the coming months, resulting in a recession in Europe in the winter of 2022/23. We expect Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia to take the biggest economic hit. Not only will they experience gas shortages, but they are also highly exposed to recession in Germany given strong supply-chain links. Germany, Austria, and Italy will face gas shortages. We expect rationing in the German industrial sector to have region-wide spillover effects. Elsewhere in the EU, the main impact will come through high energy prices, falling confidence, and weak external trade. The Baltic states and Bulgaria are particularly exposed. Problems in its nuclear sector make France’s position more precarious than might have been expected. Next year, Europe will struggle to restock its gas storage without flowing from Russia. The winter of 2023/24 will therefore also be challenging. We expect high inflation and sluggish growth until at least 2024. Russia’s aim has been to make a








